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  The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will estimate the natural real rate of interest and potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth as part of its efforts to strengthen macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis, according to the central bank’s annual report released on Friday.The RBI said the department’s goals for 2026-27 include improving GDP growth and inflation forecasting, assessing sectoral deployment of credit, including non-bank sources, estimating the natural real rate of interest and potential GDP growth, and reviewing the quarterly projection model.“During 2026-27, the Department will focus on strengthening macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis. Accordingly, the Department has set the following goals: reviewing and improving GDP growth forecasting; reviewing and improving inflation forecasting; sectoral deployment of credit to include non-bank sources; estimating the natural real rate of interest; estimating potential GDP and its growth rate; and reviewing th...

  The Reserve Bank is expected to leave the key policy rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent this week and adopt a cautious stance that factors in the possible headwinds to inflation and growth trajectory amid the West Asia turmoil, experts opined.With surging energy prices, continuing supply chain woes and a depreciating rupee, primarily driven by external challenges, some experts are of the view that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may raise its inflation forecast and lower its GDP growth estimate at its bi-monthly monetary policy meet from June 3 to 5.After three days of deliberations, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, will announce its decision on June 5.In April, the Reserve Bank had kept its key policy rate unchanged, adopting a cautious wait-and-watch stance as policymakers assessed the fallout from the West Asia conflict on energy supplies, inflation and growth.A research report from the SBI's economic research department expe...