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RBI to estimate natural real rate of interest, potential GDP growth in FY27

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 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will estimate the natural real rate of interest and potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth as part of its efforts to strengthen macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis, according to the central bank’s annual report released on Friday.The RBI said the department’s goals for 2026-27 include improving GDP growth and inflation forecasting, assessing sectoral deployment of credit, including non-bank sources, estimating the natural real rate of interest and potential GDP growth, and reviewing the quarterly projection model.“During 2026-27, the Department will focus on strengthening macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis. Accordingly, the Department has set the following goals: reviewing and improving GDP growth forecasting; reviewing and improving inflation forecasting; sectoral deployment of credit to include non-bank sources; estimating the natural real rate of interest; estimating potential GDP and its growth rate; and reviewing the quarterly projection model,” the RBI said.The RBI said monetary policy actions during the financial year 2025-26 remained growth-supportive while reinforcing the growth-inflation balance, strengthening transmission and responding flexibly to evolving domestic and global developments.

“Monetary policy actions during the year remained growth-supportive even as the Reserve Bank reinforced the growth-inflation balance, strengthened transmission, and enhanced the effectiveness of monetary policy, while remaining agile and flexible in responding to evolving domestic and global developments,” the central bank said in the report.The RBI said monetary policy operations during 2025-26 were conducted amid moderating inflation, improving growth momentum and heightened global uncertainty. The Monetary Policy Committee, while remaining data-dependent, eased policy through rate cuts and liquidity injections to support liquidity conditions and improve transmission.The domestic rate-setting panel cut the policy repo rate by 100 basis points during the reported financial year.

 

-Business Standard 01st June,2026

 

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