Skip to main content

India's agriculture growth slips to 4.5% in Q4 on higher base

By
India's agriculture growth slips to 4.5% in Q4 on higher base
For 2017-18, overall full year, growth in agriculture and allied activities was estimated at 3.4 per cent as against 6.3 per cent clocked in 2016-17
India’s agriculture growth in the January to March quarter of 2017-18 dipped to 4.5 per cent as compared to 7.1 per cent in the same period last year despite a bumper production largely because of higher base.
Though, the 4.5 per cent growth in agriculture and allied activities clocked during the fourth quarter of 2017-18 was highest in the year, but it wasn’t good enough to pull overall farm sector growth to over 4 per cent in 2017-18 full year.For 2017-18, overall full year, growth in agriculture and allied activities was estimated at 3.4 per cent as against 6.3 per cent clocked in 2016-17.Going forward, experts believed that if monsoon remains fairly normal in 2018 also, India might clock a 4 per cent growth in agriculture and allied activities.
Graph Gross Value Added For Agriculture and Allied “The third advance estimates of food grain production was 279.51 million tonnes in 2017-18 which is higher than the second advance estimates of food grain production during 2017-18 of 277.49 million tonnes and final estimates of 275.11 million tonnes during the agricultural year 2016-17,” an official statement said.
Meanwhile, the data showed that in current prices, the Gross Value Added (GVA) in agriculture and allied activities in 2017-18 was estimated at 4.5 per cent down from 11.6 per cent recorded during 2016-17. The sharp fall in GVA at current prices, also reflects the impact of inflation on farm goods which has seen a consistent fall since 2014-15 due to low farm-gate prices of oilseeds, pulses and cotton.
Falling farm gate prices has been one of major challenges for the Narendra Modi government in the last four years, which despite bumper harvest, farmers haven’t been able to reap in the benefits.The drop in prices of major oilseeds, pulses along with cash and horticulture crops has fueled widespread farmers’ agitation in several parts of the country in 2017. The foodgrains production jumped due to a largely normal monsoon in 2017.
The southwest monsoon in 2017 was 95 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), which was slightly below normal. Though, the rains were deficient in around 20 per cent of the landmass, but it was largely normal in majority of the areas.“The slump in Q4 GVA numbers and also the full year figure for agriculture and allied activities is mainly due to base effect despite that any growth in agriculture which is in the range of 3-4 per cent is good enough,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist CARE Ratings.
He said drop in agriculture GVA at constant prices is reflective of the low prices that farmers are getting as inflation is in-built at current rate, but usually GVA at constant prices is a better management of growth.
The Business Standard, New Delhi, 1st June 2018

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Household debt up, but India still lags emerging-market economies: RBI

By
  Although household debt in India is rising, driven by increased borrowing from the financial sector, it remains lower than in other emerging-market economies (EMEs), the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its Financial Stability Report. It added that non-housing retail loans, largely taken for consumption, accounted for 55 per cent of total household debt.As of December 2024, India’s household debt-to-gross domestic product ratio stood at 41.9 per cent. “...Non-housing retail loans, which are mostly used for consumption purposes, formed 54.9 per cent of total household debt as of March 2025 and 25.7 per cent of disposable income as of March 2024. Moreover, the share of these loans has been growing consistently over the years, and their growth has outpaced that of both housing loans and agriculture and business loans,” the RBI said in its report.Housing loans, by contrast, made up 29 per cent of household debt, and their growth has remained steady. However, disaggregated data sho...
Post a Comment
Read more

External spillovers likely to hit India's financial system: RBI report

By
  While India’s growth remains insulated from global headwinds mainly due to buoyant domestic demand, the domestic financial system could, however, be impacted by external spillovers, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its half yearly Financial Stability Report published on Monday.Furthermore, the rising global trade disputes and intensifying geopolitical hostilities could negatively impact the domestic growth outlook and reduce the demand for bank credit, which has decelerated sharply. “Moreover, it could also lead to increased risk aversion among investors and further corrections in domestic equity markets, which despite the recent correction, remain at the high end of their historical range,” the report said.It noted that there is some build-up of stress, primarily in financial markets, on account of global spillovers, which is reflected in the marginal rise in the financial system stress indicator, an indicator of the stress level in the financial system, compared to its p...
Post a Comment
Read more

Retail inflation cools to a six-year low of 2.82% in May on moderating food prices

By
  New Delhi: Retail inflation in India cooled to its lowest level in over six years in May, helped by a sharp moderation in food prices, according to provisional government data released Thursday.Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation eased to 2.82% year-on-year, down from 3.16% in April and 4.8% in May last year, data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) showed. This marks the fourth consecutive month of sub-4% inflation, the longest such streak in at least five years.The data comes just days after the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%, its third straight cut and a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points since the easing cycle began in February. The move signals a possible pivot from inflation control to supporting growth.Food inflation came in at just 0.99% in May, down from 1.78% in April and a sharp decline from 8.69% a year ago.A Mint poll of 15 economists had projected CPI ...
Post a Comment
Read more