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  It’s not just humans who suffer from cognitive biases; markets do too. Interestingly, different financial markets exhibit distinct biases, each interpreting events through its own prism of prejudice. Take the recent announcements on GST reforms: equity markets have chosen to view them through the lens of growth, while bond and currency markets are focusing on potential macroeconomic risks—fiscal pressures and current account challenges. So, which lens captures the true pulse?Equity markets may be right in expecting GST reforms to revive consumption, which has remained lacklustre for a while. But the key question remains—will this revival come at the cost of broader macro stability?It is well known that consumption stocks have rallied since the GST rationalisation announcement. But what about bond markets? What signals are they sending since this rejig was announced from the ramparts of the Red Fort?The signs aren't encouraging. Bond prices have slumped and yields have surged sinc...

  Lower investment announcements amid uncertain demand conditions, along with higher cash buffer, points to a cautiously optimistic outlook for private investment activity in the country, a study authored by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) staff in the August bulletin of the central bank said.“Looking ahead, the investment outlook remains cautiously optimistic,” the study highlighted.Having said that, the study also highlighted that India Inc has entered the current financial year (FY26) with healthier balance sheets, higher cash buffer, improved profitability, and greater access to diversified funding sources, despite global uncertainties.And a host of factors, including policy support for infrastructure, sustained disinflation, lower interest rates following 100 basis points policy rate reduction by the central bank, easy liquidity conditions, and rising capacity utilisation, are creating a conducive environment for private investment.As a result, the phasing profile of pipeline proj...

  A clear picture regarding new GST rates at the earliest will help the overall auto industry, including the luxury car segment, to regain momentum in the ongoing quarter, which generally sees enhanced sales on account of the festive season.The high-powered GST Council, chaired by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, will meet on September 3-4 to discuss moving to a two-slab taxation.In an interaction with PTI, BMW Group India President and CEO Hardeep Singh Brar said the recent speculation about the change in GST rates has caused uncertainty in the minds of consumers.Consumer interest and demand is strong, but they (prospective buyers) have adopted a wait-and-watch approach, and this delayed decision-making is impacting new vehicle sales at a certain level, he noted."Expediting clarity on GST rates is essential to get back to speed and ensure the auto sector's contribution to economic growth during this quarter is robust," Brar stated.He also hoped that the sustainable p...

  Sebi on Friday said it has proposed to tighten the norms to appoint independent third-party reviewers or certifiers for green debt securities to align them with requirements for other ESG-linked bonds.In a draft circular, Sebi said that the current norms for green bonds, introduced in February 2023, lack detailed requirements around reviewer independence, conflict of interest mitigation, and disclosure standards that are now in place for other ESG-linked securities under a June 2025 circular.The regulator's latest proposal seeks public comments on a revised framework that would bring parity by incorporating comprehensive criteria for third-party certifiers of green bonds on non-convertible securities.Under the proposed norms, issuers of green debt securities will need to appoint reviewers who are independent of their management, directors, and key managerial personnel. These reviewers will be remunerated in a way that prevents any conflicts of interest and possess relevant expert...

  The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to announce a 25 basis points (bps) repo rate cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled from August 4 to 6, according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI).The report said a frontloaded rate cut in August could bring an "early Diwali" by boosting credit growth, especially as the festive season in FY26 is also frontloaded. It added that past data show a clear trend, any repo rate cut ahead of Diwali results in higher credit growth during the festive period.It stated, "We expect RBI to continue frontloading with a 25 bps cut in August policy."Citing an example, the report noted that a 25 bps repo rate cut in August 2017 led to an incremental credit growth of Rs 1,956 billion by the end of Diwali, with almost 30 per cent of this in personal loans.It added that Diwali, being one of the biggest festivals in India, sees higher consumer spending, and a low-interest rate environment before Diwa...

  Although household debt in India is rising, driven by increased borrowing from the financial sector, it remains lower than in other emerging-market economies (EMEs), the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its Financial Stability Report. It added that non-housing retail loans, largely taken for consumption, accounted for 55 per cent of total household debt.As of December 2024, India’s household debt-to-gross domestic product ratio stood at 41.9 per cent. “...Non-housing retail loans, which are mostly used for consumption purposes, formed 54.9 per cent of total household debt as of March 2025 and 25.7 per cent of disposable income as of March 2024. Moreover, the share of these loans has been growing consistently over the years, and their growth has outpaced that of both housing loans and agriculture and business loans,” the RBI said in its report.Housing loans, by contrast, made up 29 per cent of household debt, and their growth has remained steady. However, disaggregated data sho...

  While India’s growth remains insulated from global headwinds mainly due to buoyant domestic demand, the domestic financial system could, however, be impacted by external spillovers, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its half yearly Financial Stability Report published on Monday.Furthermore, the rising global trade disputes and intensifying geopolitical hostilities could negatively impact the domestic growth outlook and reduce the demand for bank credit, which has decelerated sharply. “Moreover, it could also lead to increased risk aversion among investors and further corrections in domestic equity markets, which despite the recent correction, remain at the high end of their historical range,” the report said.It noted that there is some build-up of stress, primarily in financial markets, on account of global spillovers, which is reflected in the marginal rise in the financial system stress indicator, an indicator of the stress level in the financial system, compared to its p...