Skip to main content

India GDP to Slow Down Marginally, But Remain Strong at 7.5% in 2019 & 2020: OECD

By
India ’s economic growth will slow down somewhat but remain robust, at close to 7.50% in 2019 and 2020, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has said. India’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.7% in 2017-18. OECD projects GDP at market prices to grow 7.3% in 2019 and 7.4% in 2020 from 7.5% in 2018. “Economic growth will slow somewhat but remain robust, at close to 7.5% in 2019 and 2020,” the Paris-based organisation said for India in its 2018 Economic Outlook. Tighter financial conditions, higher oil prices, adverse terms of trade, lower growth in partner countries, and rising political uncertainties in India and abroad will tend to reduce growth, it said.
The Reserve Bank of India expects FY19 growth at 7.4%. Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service has projected India’s economic growth to moderate to 7.3% in 2019 and 2020 as higher oil prices combined with rupee depreciation and monetary tightening dampen domestic demand. OECD said though higher oil prices and rupee depreciation are putting pressure on demand, inflation, current account and public finances, and structural reforms will aid business investment and exports. These reforms include the new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, smoother implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), better roads and electricity and bank recapitalisation.
Pressures on inflation are also rising from recent increases in wages and housing allowances for public employees. Core inflation and inflation expectations are edging up, it cautioned. However, the organisation said monetary policy will need to be tightened as inflation expectations are trending up and there are several upside risks to inflation. OECD said the Reserve Bank’s credibility in targeting inflation and its projected marginal increases in policy rates will help anchor inflation. Containing the relatively high public debt-to-GDP ratio would require controlling contingent liabilities, such as those stemming from public enterprises and banks, it said.
The organisation also sought further subsidy reform to help make social spending more effective and improvement in public banks’ governance. On the trade front, it noted that the hike in US tariffs on Chinese imports could benefit India’s exports, particularly in the textile sector.
The Economic Times, 24th November, 2018

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Govt’s gamble on GST cuts: What do the bond and currency markets signal?

By
  It’s not just humans who suffer from cognitive biases; markets do too. Interestingly, different financial markets exhibit distinct biases, each interpreting events through its own prism of prejudice. Take the recent announcements on GST reforms: equity markets have chosen to view them through the lens of growth, while bond and currency markets are focusing on potential macroeconomic risks—fiscal pressures and current account challenges. So, which lens captures the true pulse?Equity markets may be right in expecting GST reforms to revive consumption, which has remained lacklustre for a while. But the key question remains—will this revival come at the cost of broader macro stability?It is well known that consumption stocks have rallied since the GST rationalisation announcement. But what about bond markets? What signals are they sending since this rejig was announced from the ramparts of the Red Fort?The signs aren't encouraging. Bond prices have slumped and yields have surged sinc...
Post a Comment
Read more

Luxury carmakers urge clarity on GST rates to boost festive season sales

By
  A clear picture regarding new GST rates at the earliest will help the overall auto industry, including the luxury car segment, to regain momentum in the ongoing quarter, which generally sees enhanced sales on account of the festive season.The high-powered GST Council, chaired by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, will meet on September 3-4 to discuss moving to a two-slab taxation.In an interaction with PTI, BMW Group India President and CEO Hardeep Singh Brar said the recent speculation about the change in GST rates has caused uncertainty in the minds of consumers.Consumer interest and demand is strong, but they (prospective buyers) have adopted a wait-and-watch approach, and this delayed decision-making is impacting new vehicle sales at a certain level, he noted."Expediting clarity on GST rates is essential to get back to speed and ensure the auto sector's contribution to economic growth during this quarter is robust," Brar stated.He also hoped that the sustainable p...
Post a Comment
Read more

Sebi proposes tighter norms for green bond third-party reviewers

By
  Sebi on Friday said it has proposed to tighten the norms to appoint independent third-party reviewers or certifiers for green debt securities to align them with requirements for other ESG-linked bonds.In a draft circular, Sebi said that the current norms for green bonds, introduced in February 2023, lack detailed requirements around reviewer independence, conflict of interest mitigation, and disclosure standards that are now in place for other ESG-linked securities under a June 2025 circular.The regulator's latest proposal seeks public comments on a revised framework that would bring parity by incorporating comprehensive criteria for third-party certifiers of green bonds on non-convertible securities.Under the proposed norms, issuers of green debt securities will need to appoint reviewers who are independent of their management, directors, and key managerial personnel. These reviewers will be remunerated in a way that prevents any conflicts of interest and possess relevant expert...
Post a Comment
Read more