IMF retains economic growth projection for India at 7.3% for FY19

Echoes RBI on exchange rate intervention, but differs on rate tightening

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday retained economic growth projection for India at 7.3 per cent for 2018-19 (FY19), lower than the government’s and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) forecasts. This is, however, noteworthy as the IMF cut global growth projections by 0.2 percentage points. In its World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF said foreign exchange interventions should be limited to address disorderly market conditions, something which RBI Governor Urjit Patel also talked about. The IMF wants the RBI to tighten monetary conditions, something which it did not do in the October policy review. For the next year (FY20), the IMF lowered India’s growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 7.4 per cent.

As such, the IMF does not see India’s growth reaching 7.5 per cent even in FY19. However, the RBI pegged India’s growth projections at 7.5 per cent. The government expected the rate to exceed 7.5 per cent this year on the back of 8.2 per cent growth rate in the first quarter. India’s economy grew 6.7 per cent in FY18. India will continue to be the fastest-growing major economy as China’s growth projection was retained by the IMF at 6.6 per cent for FY19. For FY20, the Chinese economic growth rate was cut by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2 per cent. The IMF releases its annual WEO ahead of its meeting with the World Bank. This year, the meeting is being hosted in Bali, Indonesia, since Friday.

The IMF said its forecast for investment growth for FY19 is weaker than in April, despite higher capital spending in India, on account of contracting investment in economies under stress, such as Argentina and Turkey, which is also reflected in a downward revision for import growth. Acceleration in the growth rate from 2017-18 reflects a rebound from transitory shocks (the currency exchange initiative and implementation of the goods and services tax), with strengthening investment and robust private consumption, the IMF said. India’s medium-term growth prospects remain strong at 7.75 per cent, benefitting from ongoing structural reform, but have been marked down by just under 0.5 percentage point relative to the April 2018 WEO, the IMF said.

It said reform priorities in India include reviving bank credit and enhancing the efficiency of credit provision by accelerating the clean-up of bank and corporate balance sheets and improving the governance of public sector banks. It also said renewed impetus to reform labour and land markets, along with further improvements to the business climate, are crucial. The IMF talked about continued capital outflows from emerging market economies and pressure on exchange rates because of monetary normalisation in the US. “Under floating exchange rate regimes, foreign exchange interventions should be limited to addressing disorderly market conditions while protecting reserve buffers,” it said.

On monetary policy, the IMF said it should be tightened to anchor expectations where inflation is expected to pick up, say in India. It said core inflation (excluding all food and energy items) in India had risen to about 6 per cent as a result of a narrowing output gap and pass-through effects from higher energy prices and exchange rate depreciation. The IMF said a high interest burden and risks from rising yields in India also require continued focus on debt reduction to establish policy credibility and build buffers.

The Business Standard,09th October 2018

Household debt up, but India still lags emerging-market economies: RBI

Although household debt in India is rising, driven by increased borrowing from the financial sector, it remains lower than in other emerging-market economies (EMEs), the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its Financial Stability Report. It added that non-housing retail loans, largely taken for consumption, accounted for 55 per cent of total household debt.As of December 2024, India’s household debt-to-gross domestic product ratio stood at 41.9 per cent. “...Non-housing retail loans, which are mostly used for consumption purposes, formed 54.9 per cent of total household debt as of March 2025 and 25.7 per cent of disposable income as of March 2024. Moreover, the share of these loans has been growing consistently over the years, and their growth has outpaced that of both housing loans and agriculture and business loans,” the RBI said in its report.Housing loans, by contrast, made up 29 per cent of household debt, and their growth has remained steady. However, disaggregated data sho...

External spillovers likely to hit India's financial system: RBI report

While India’s growth remains insulated from global headwinds mainly due to buoyant domestic demand, the domestic financial system could, however, be impacted by external spillovers, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its half yearly Financial Stability Report published on Monday.Furthermore, the rising global trade disputes and intensifying geopolitical hostilities could negatively impact the domestic growth outlook and reduce the demand for bank credit, which has decelerated sharply. “Moreover, it could also lead to increased risk aversion among investors and further corrections in domestic equity markets, which despite the recent correction, remain at the high end of their historical range,” the report said.It noted that there is some build-up of stress, primarily in financial markets, on account of global spillovers, which is reflected in the marginal rise in the financial system stress indicator, an indicator of the stress level in the financial system, compared to its p...

Retail inflation cools to a six-year low of 2.82% in May on moderating food prices

New Delhi: Retail inflation in India cooled to its lowest level in over six years in May, helped by a sharp moderation in food prices, according to provisional government data released Thursday.Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation eased to 2.82% year-on-year, down from 3.16% in April and 4.8% in May last year, data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) showed. This marks the fourth consecutive month of sub-4% inflation, the longest such streak in at least five years.The data comes just days after the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%, its third straight cut and a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points since the easing cycle began in February. The move signals a possible pivot from inflation control to supporting growth.Food inflation came in at just 0.99% in May, down from 1.78% in April and a sharp decline from 8.69% a year ago.A Mint poll of 15 economists had projected CPI ...

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