Skip to main content

India’s market cap to GDP nears 100%

India’s market cap to GDP nears 100%
Indian stocks are nearing the red zone as the country’s market capitalisation is now almost equal to its gross domestic product (GDP).With the benchmark indices recording new highs, India’s market capitalisation has swelled to Rs 150.7 lakh crore, 95 per centof GDP (on a trailing four-quarter basis). The market cap-to-GDP ratio was just 72 per cent a year ago.
The surge of 23 percentage points is due to exuberance in the equity market despite economic growth slowing.The Indian market cap has risen by Rs 44.44 lakh crore, or 42 per cent, in the past-one year.Besides the sharp share price increase, high equity issuances, particularly initial public offerings (IPOs), have contributed to the increase in market cap this year.
Meanwhile, GDP has managed to rise by only eight per cent during the same period. Domestic GDP in the June quarter had slowed to 5.7 per cent (year-on-year growth) due to demonetisation and the introduction ofthe goods and services tax( GST). It sawa slight revival to 6.3 per cent in the June quarter.
India’s market cap-to-GDP ratio was more than 100 per cent after the 2007 bull run. Stock prices had seen a significant meltdown after that amid the global financial crisis.According to experts, the ratio of more than 100 per cent is considered risky, while a figure of over 120 per cent is considered to be bubble territory.
Some saya high market cap-to-GDP reading may not be cause for concern because a lot of developed markets have been trading atmore than 100 per cent for some time now. Also, economic growth is likely to come backto seven per cent-plus levels in the next fiscal year.
So far, experts have been justifying India’s expensive valuations by pointing atthe low market cap-to-GDP reading. However, if stocks continue to go up and the GDP print remains muted, India will look expensive on this count as well.
The Business Standard, New Delhi, 26th December 2017


Popular posts from this blog

RBI rushes in to prop up falling rupee

RBI rushes in to prop up falling rupee India’s central bank reportedly intervened in the currency markets on Monday to prevent a further slide in the local unit, which breached the 67 mark to a dollar for the first time in 15 months amid a widening trade gap and runaway import bills fuelled by high crude-oil prices. Some state-owned banks were seen selling dollars aggressively, interventions that market dealers attributed to the central bank’s strategy to stem the decline of the Indian rupee against the US currency. The rupee is the worst performing among a dozen Asian monetary units in the past three months. It lost 4.25 per cent to the dollar during the period, show data from Bloomberg. On Monday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is said to have sold about Rs 800 million collectively on the spot and exchange traded futures markets, dealers said. An email sent to RBI remained unanswered until the publication of this report. The currency market has seen such a strong central bank interven…

GST Refund of Rs 20,000 Cr Pending: Exporters’ Body

GST Refund of Rs  20,000 Cr Pending: Exporters’ Body Refund of over Rs 20,000 crore on account of Goods and Services Tax (GST) is pending with the government with more than half the amount stuck as input tax credit, Federation of Indian Export Organisations said on Tuesday. While claims over Rs7,000 crore were cleared in March, the amount was Rs 1,000 crore in April.However, after exporters’ request, the GST council and tax department are organizing a second phase of Special Refund Fortnight starting May 31, which will enable exporters to draw their refunds at a speedy pace. Many exporters have been unable to file the refund of input tax credit due to technical glitches, exports and claim happened in different months. The major challenge lies on ITC refund especially because the process is partly electronic and partly manual which is cumbersome and add to the transaction cost, the exporters’ body said. On IGST, refunds are getting delayed due to airline and shipping companies not submitt…

Shrinking footprints of foreign banks in India

Shrinking footprints of foreign banks in India Foreign banks are increasingly shrinking their presence in India and are also becoming more conservative than private and public sector counterparts. While many of them have sold some of their businesses in India as part of their global strategy, some are trying to keep their core expertise intact. Others are branching out to newer areas to continue business momentum.For example, HSBC and Barclays Bank in India have got out of the retail business, whereas corporate-focused Standard Chartered Bank is now trying to increase its focus on retail “Building a retail franchise is a huge exercise and takes a long time. You cannot afford to lose it,” said Shashank Joshi, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ’s India head.According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data, foreign banks’ combined loan book shrunk nearly 10 per cent from Rs 3.78 trillion in fiscal 2015-16 to Rs 3.42 trillion last financial year. The banking industry, which includes foreign banks…