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Market Banks on Bad Loan Solution

Nifty PSU Bank Index rises 3.3% on hopes of imminent solution to NPAs following FM's remark
Public sector banks were the toast of Dalal Street in an otherwise listless trade on Friday as finance minister Arun Jait ley's remarks on an imminent so lution to the growing asset quality problems enthused traders. Trad ers rushed to cover short posi tions in these stocks and the Nifty PSU Bank Index rose 3.3%.
Gains in PSU banks and even se lect private banks, which form around 30% of the benchmark Nifty weightage, propelled the main Nifty index back above the 9100 mark. The Nifty closed a 9108, up 21.70 points, or 0.2%, and the Sensex ended 89.24 points, or 0.3%, higher at 29421.40 points.
Money managers said the mo mentum can lead to more gains in the PSB sector in the next few days but added that sustainability over the time would depend on the steps the government announces.
“For PSU banks to outperform market we need permanent solution for non-performing assets, administrative reforms for faster and external influence-free decision making and capitalisation for credit growth,“ said Nilesh Shah, managing director at Kotak Asset Management Company . “If there is a band-aid approach when we require an operation then they will end up as a trading play than an investment opportunity .“

Oriental Bank of Commerce, Bank of India, Syndicate Bank, Punjab National Bank, State Bank of India and Bank of Baroda gained between 3% and 7%.

Jaitley on Thursday said that the government is working with the RBI on a mechanism that will force borrowers to settle dues. The finance minister blamed 30-50 com panies for the bad loan mess at pub lic sector banks.

Total stressed loans including restructured and bad debt of Indian banks stood at . 9.64 lakh crore as of December ` . 8.97 lakh crore last year, up from ` in September.

Money managers said investors are not yet convinced that the proposed steps will lead to a permanent solution to the bad loan mess. Mehraboon Irani, head of private client group business at Nirmal Bang said one needs to see the steps that are announced and whether it will lead to reduction in NPAs.

“If they do, then it would be a beginning of a rally in PSU banks most of which are trading at a discount to their book value,“ said Irani.

Valuations of many public sector banks have lagged behind their private sector peers as the bad loan problem drove them into losses. Barring SBI and Bank of Baroda, other stateowned lenders are trading at a price to book value of less than 1. Most private banks are trading at 2-4 times because of better asset quality.

Amit Gupta, head of derivatives at ICICI Direct, advised buying shares of Punjab National Bank and Union Bank for a near-term target of `160 and `175, respectively.

“There was short covering across PSU banks and we will continue to see this trend in the March series,“ said Gupta.

Economic Times New Delhi,25th March 2017

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