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Early lifting of withdrawal limits to fuel optimism

By
N SUNDARESHA SUBRAMANIAN

Opening with spiritual leader Ramakrishna Paramhansas" Takamati, matitaka ,"Bengali for money is mud,the Economic Survey 2016 17s 
demonetisation chapter skipped difficult questions on note-ban implementation,while trying to figure out how best to milk the note 
ban, described as money-vacuuming chopperor "helicopter hoovering” or the opposite of helicopter money, which involves distribution
of printed money to the public.

Advising against any impulse to penalise cash withdrawals in the short term,chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian in the Survey 
said, "The early elimination of withdrawal limits will help build confidence.By the same token, there should be no penalties on cash
withdrawals, which would only encourage cash hoarding." Supply of currency should follow actual demand and not be dictated by official
estimates of "desirable demand". In other words,"the Reserve Bank of India should re-establish internal convertibility,guaranteeing to 
give the public the amount of currency that the latter wants,"he added.

Hailing the move as unconventional and unprecedented in peace time,the Survey argued that the liquidity squeeze was less severe than 
suggested by the headlines. "India has given a whole new expression to unconventional monetary policy,with the difference that whereas 
advanced economies have focuse don expanding the money supply,Indias demonetisation has reduc edit.This policy could be considered a
‘reverse helicopter drop,or perhaps more accurately a helicopterho over." The Survey suggested a number of steps to minimise costs and 
maximise benefits of demonetisation. These include fast,demand driven,remonetisation; further tax reforms,including bringing land and 
real estate under goods and services tax,reducing tax rates and stamp duties;and acting to ease anxieties on over-zealous tax 
administration."These actions would allow growth to return to trend in 2017-18, following a temporary decline in 2016-17,"the Survey 
concluded.

Long-term benefits may not necessarily manifest in the next six months but evidence should start trickling in overone-year horizon and 
beyond.It identified three future markers of success.

First,changes in use of digital payment methods across three categories of digital access: Smart phone users,regular phone users,and 
phoneless. The early signs are encouraging.

Second,cash to gross domestic product(GDP)should decline as more savings get channelled through the formal financial system and black 
(unaccounted) money declines.Based on one estimate of black money, the cash-GDP ratio could decline permanently by about two percent
age points.

The most important marker of success would be taxes.The number of new income taxpayers as well as reported and taxable income should 
goup.As of FY 14,there were 36.5 million tax payers who filed returns and 17.3 million tax payers who didnt. Overtime,these numbers 
should rise.That will be the surest sign of success, the Survey said

01st FEBRUARY, 2017, BUSINESSS STANDARD,NEW-DELHI

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